The Senate Shakeup

Raphael Warnock wins reelection in Georgia while Kyrsten Sinema becomes an independent.

On Tuesday, December 6th the Georgia runoff race between incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock (D) and challenger Herschel Walker (R) ended with a win for Warnock. Warnock had more votes in the original election but did not get 50% of the votes in the November 8th election because of Libertarian Chase Oliver, who held roughly 2.1% of the vote. In the runoff election, Warnock earned 51.4% of the vote, while Walker earned 48.6% of the vote. Warnock beat Walker by a total of 96,613 votes, according to the election map from the Associated Press. With Warnock’s win, the Democrats further solidified their gains in the Senate. These gains make it for Democrats to pass bills as they no run less risk in relying on all party members and independents to vote with Democrats in the Senate and then use Vice President Kamala Harris as the tie-breaking vote.

Winning this race would have given the Democrats 49 seats in the 118th Congress. Democrats also rely on support from 2 left-leaning independents, Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine. Republicans will hold the remaining 49 seats in the 118th Congress, which begins on January 3rd of 2023, and runs until January 3rd of 2025. However, Democrats will not retain their 49 cores and will instead end up with just 48 seats in the next Congress because Democrat Kyrsten Sinema has declared that she will become an independent. In July of 2021, Kyrsten Sinema and fellow Democrat Joe Manchin stopped the passing of the Build Back Better bill, forcing the bill to be slimmed down before a smaller version was passed in the form of the Inflation Reduction Act.

While Sinema leaving the Democrats does not change much for the way she will vote or what will pass through the Senate, her action does beg the question, why leave the Democrats? It seems that Sinema is more focused on the politics within her own state. Since many Arizona Democrats are frustrated with Sinema for her positions on the Build Back Better bill and other issues, there will likely be a lot of competition in the primaries for the next election. As an independent, Sinema is able to avoid the primary and run with the hopes of maintaining support from moderate Democrats and Republicans in her state to win reelection in 2024.

Democrats may be able to pass their bills more easily now that they are likely to have a 51 to 49 majority on most votes. A single holdout will not be able to stop any bill in the Senate as the Democrats would win the tie with Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote. This means there must be two holdouts to stop any bill proposed by the Democrats to avoid a tie-breaking vote. Republicans narrowly took the House of Representatives in the 2022 elections meaning that there is a good chance that things may remain just as split in Congress when it comes to passing major legislation.

Stay curious, stay free, and have an amazing day!

Sources:

https://www.wtoc.com/video/2022/11/09/warnock-walker-locked-tight-race-ga-runoff-possible/ - image

Election map image - google search “US Senate Georgia general runoff Election, 2022”

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-kyrsten-sinema-left-the-democratic-party/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/118th_United_States_Congress#:~:text=It%20is%20scheduled%20to%20meet,s%20first%20term%20of%20presidency.

https://rollcall.com/2022/07/21/how-build-back-better-started-and-how-its-going-a-timeline/